Coffee production to remain stable despite Arabica/Robusta divergence

11 January 2017

An initial estimate of global coffee production in 2016/17 suggests that the world total
will remain relatively stable, up 0.1% to 151.6 million bags. Arabica production is potentially set
for a record level of 93.5 million bags with bumper crops expected from Brazil, Colombia and
Honduras. Prospects for Robusta supply, on the other hand, are less positive, with lower crops
expected from most major origins. Prices on the futures markets have reflected these
developments recently, with Robusta prices generally showing support and Arabica under
pressure, leading to a narrowing in the arbitrage between the two.
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ICO Indicator prices
(US cents/lb)  22/05/2017
  change
ICO Composite 123.16 -1.8%
Colombian Milds 150.05 -1.2%
Other Milds 147.78 -1.1%
Brazilian Naturals 128.99 -1.7%
Robustas 95.86 -2.7%

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