2018/19 expected to be the second year of surplus

10 January 2019

Coffee year 2018/19 is expected to be the second consecutive season of surplus, as global output, estimated at 167.47 million bags, exceeds world consumption, estimated at 165.18 million bags. However, given the stronger growth in demand, the surplus for 2018/19 is projected to be 2.29 million bags, around 1 million bags less than in 2017/18. This excess in supply continues to put downward pressure on prices that will likely continue over the next few months. After a decrease of 1.5% to 109.59 US cents/lb in November 2018, the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator fell sharply to 100.61 US cents/lb in December 2018. Prices for all group indicators declined in December 2018, with the largest decreases for Brazilian Naturals and Colombian Milds, which fell by 9.9% to 102.10 US cents/lb and by 8.2% to 127.86 US cents/lb, respectively. Other Milds decreased by 7.3% to 127.10 US cents/lb, reducing the differential with Colombian Milds to just 0.76 US cents/lb in December 2018. Robusta fell by 7.1% to 77.57 US cents/lb.
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ICO Indicator prices
(US cents/lb)  13/11/2019
  change
ICO Composite 107.20 +2.0%
Colombian Milds 144.57 +2.0%
Other Milds 140.01 +1.7%
Brazilian Naturals 108.97 +2.1%
Robustas 75.01 +2.3%

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1 October is #InternationalCoffeeDay

Every year on 1 October, the world comes together to celebrate coffee and recognise the millions of people across the globe - from farmers, to roasters, baristas, coffee shop owners and more  - who work hard to create and serve the beverage we all love.

This year we're on a collective mission to help coffee farmers around the world receive a fair, living income. But to do it we need your help, find out more at: International Coffee Day


Latest ICO Studies & Reports

Coffee Development Report 2019. Growing for prosperity: Economic viability as the catalyst for a sustainable coffee sector (Published October 2019)

Futures markets: the role of non-commercial traders (Published March 2019)

Profitability of coffee farming in selected Latin American countries - interim report (Published March 2019)

Survey on the impact of low coffee prices on exporting countries (Published March 2019)

Emerging coffee markets: South and East Asia (Published September 2018)

Guide to Access Green and Climate Funding: The Global Environment Facility (Published October 2018)

Role of coffee futures markets in discovering prices for Latin American producers (Published September 2018)

National Quality Standards (Published September 2018)

Gender equality in the coffee sector (Published September 2018)

Maximum residue limits (Published September 2018)

Country Coffee Profile: Ghana (Published September 2018)

Mixtures and substitutes (Published September 2018)

Gender equality in the coffee sector (Published April 2018)

Development of coffee trade flows (Published April 2018)


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